Kvyat on thin ice at Red Bull

Kvyat already looking over his shoulder

Red Bull's Driver Program is notorious for its ruthlessness, and with a new batch of their backed drivers making it to F1 this year, the pressure automatically ramps up on all of them to remain relevant. Not all will succeed though, so who's likely to feel the heat this year? Formula E's rapid growth in popularity has been largely fuelled by high-profile drivers signing up in a more relaxed environment than the ultra-serious and career defining world of Formula 1. Bruno Senna, Nick Heidfeld & Takuma Sato were all names to get people watching for the very first round, but the revolving door policies at some of the teams since then has seen the series explode with drivers who found themselves cast aside from the F1 paddock.

A quick look at names that have joined in recent races include Scott Speed, Jean-Eric Vergne & Vitantonio Liuzzi, while the likes of Karun Chandhok, Jaime Alguersuari, Sebastien Buemi & Antonio Felix Da Costa have been signed up from the start. What do all these men have in common?

The simple answer is Red Bull. Liuzzi was one of Red Bull & Toro Rosso's first drivers in F1, Vergne, Speed, Buemi & Alguersuari all raced for Toro Rosso while Da Costa & Chandhok enjoyed the backing of Red Bull in lower formulae. However, one by one, each of these men fell by the wayside and out of favor with the energy drinks giant's motor racing branch and were either driven out of their sport or scrabbled to find seats elsewhere. Often struggling due to a lack of backing, backing they hadn't required while Red Bull were on board.

While there have been many other junior formulae drivers unceremoniously dumped and forgotten about, the good news for the aforementioned drivers is that they are still relevant. All are still racing and have found slots in various championships, with Formula E being the most obvious refugee camp. Indeed, glancing at the leaderboard during any ePrix would have you believing the series is Formula Red Bull Rejects and not a bespoke and unique championship. How best then, can one describe the Red Bull Driver Program? Cruel? Tyrannical? Those adjectives certainly apply, but the most obvious and important one is….effective.

Sebastian Vettel is the most obvious graduate of the program with the now Ferrari man winning four titles with Red Bull and seeing off highly rated team-mate Mark Webber during their years together, while Daniel Ricciardo has also proven rather handy behind the wheel. The Australian took three wins in 2014 with Red Bull, the only man besides a dominant Mercedes driver to do so.

Over at Toro Rosso, Red Bull have fast-tracked Max Verstappen's rapid rise to the big leagues as the Dutch driver got called up to F1 at the age of 17, having only driven a single seater for the first time in December 2013. Carlos Sainz, winner of the 2014 Formula Renault 3.5 championship got the nod for the second seat at the expense of Jean Eric Vergne. Both Sainz & Verstappen have taken to F1 with remarkable aplomb, Sainz finishing in the points twice in the first four races, and Max scoring points in the only race his car has managed to complete so far.

There is no question that the likes of Jean-Eric Vergne, Jaime Alguersuari & Sebastien Buemi are all good enough for Formula 1. All three scored points right at the death of their F1 careers, with Alguersuari & Vergne in particular drawing praise from fans and media as they fought to keep their seats. In the end, they lost their seats not because they weren't good enough, but because Red Bull aren't interested in solidly good and dependable drivers. Dr. Helmut Marko is the man responsible for talent spotting for Dietrich Mateschitz's program, and Marko comes down hard on those who are less than exceptional.

Even Sebastian Vettel didn't completely escape Marko's wrath during his lackluster 2014, the 4 time Champion being told to pull up his socks last April after a tough start to the season. Aside from Ricciardo's three victories last season, he consistently beat the struggling Vettel, and enjoyed numerous duels with Fernando Alonso that established his reputation as a tough but fair fighter. Such exacting standards are always going to be tough to meet, and the key to remaining on Marko's good side has been not starting down a slippery slope of bad results or poor performance. After all, out of all the drivers that have been linked with Red Bull cutting them loose in their respective seasons, not one remains in Formula 1.

That's why Daniil Kvyat is the man under pressure. The 2014 rookie got the call up to Red Bull Racing after a year at Toro Rosso, where he finished with 8 points to Jean-Eric Vergne's 22. Both retired five times from Grands Prix, but it’s interesting to note that Daniil's results had a downward trend during the season. He scored points on five occasions, Australia, Malaysia, China, Britain & Belgium. Out of the last 7 races, he retired from one and was out of the points in the others. By comparison, Vergne only finished outside the points five times out of the races he completed. He caught the eye in the closing races with 6th place in Singapore, and a 9th in Austin (demoted to 10th after a time penalty for obstreperous overtaking). Despite this, Vergne was dropped after beating Kvyat and comparing favorably against Ricciardo over their two season together.

Already, the vultures are starting to come out and put the spotlight on Kvyat, making him sweat as his on track performances are put under intense scrutiny. Just four weekends in, the whispers of ‘discomfort' and ‘underperformance' are starting to make themselves heard. It's not fair, seeing as Daniil couldn't even start in Australia after an engine problem. Malaysia seemed to signal all was OK with the Russian beating Ricciardo home after matching him in qualifying. While Ricciardo was compromised in the race with some front wing damage and ailing brakes, Kvyat also had to overcome being spun around by Nico Hulkenberg. A commendable performance then.

Then came China, and the undoing of all his good work. A poor qualifying meant he found himself ahead of Ricciardo after Daniel's terrible start, but for some inexplicable reason, Daniil decided to fight his team-mate despite being on a different strategy. Corner after corner, he held back Daniel's advances and ensured that both came under pressure from Fernando Alonso just behind them. Despite team instruction, despite the obviousness of what was desired and despite what common sense dictated, Kvyat ignored it until the issue was forced by Ricciardo. This wasn't exactly fighting for the win either, in which case Daniil's actions might have been excusable. Sticking his head above the parapet like he did in China will only lead to him getting shot.

Retiring shortly after with an engine failure wasn't his fault, but a comprehensive trouncing at the hands of Ricciardo in Bahrain won't have done much to assuage the sense that Daniil is not adjusting well to life at a front running team who aren't quite front running any more. Frustration and terse quotes are all we've seen from Red Bull's management so far this season, and that's before the inevitable engine penalties start. At the rate the Renaults have been expiring, Ricciardo & Kvyat could be taking penalties on a regular basis as they need new engines.

Starting from low on the grid and then being unable to fight back to the top due to the power advantages of their rivals will hardly improve Messrs Horner, Mateschitz & Marko's mood. To make life even worse for Kvyat, it appears that Max Verstappen is flavor of the month at Red Bull. A newly recognized record holder as youngest ever points finisher in Malaysia proves Max has talent in abundance, and a strong season could well put Max in line for a seat alongside Ricciardo next year.

A poor season for Kvyat will almost certainly lead to his demotion, provided at least one of the Toro Rosso drivers steps up to the plate and shows the qualities of being an exceptional driver, as opposed to merely a very good one. The line of succession at Red Bull is already full of jostling youngsters, with Pierre Gasly set to drive the Toro Rosso during the Barcelona test in May while Dean Stoneman has been picked up by the program while stepping up to Formula Renault 3.5. There's only one way Kvyat can ensure his survival into 2016, and that is to match or beat Daniel Ricciardo on a regular basis. Doing so would mean the team won't just say "Well, he couldn't match Daniel, let's try Max/Carlos. After all, we've nothing to lose…". Time and circumstances are not on Daniil's side, and patience is not a virtue that has been demonstrated very often by Red Bull FormulaSpy