Verstappen's Path to F1 Glory in goes through Qatar

Doha, Qatar – November 24, 2025 – The 2025 Formula 1 title fight is down to its final 58 points, and this weekend in Lusail will decide whether Max Verstappen can drag the battle all the way to Abu Dhabi.

–by Mark Cipolloni–

After Lando Norris’s Las Vegas disqualification gifted Verstappen victory, the standings read:
– Lando Norris – 390 points
– Max Verstappen – 366 points
– Oscar Piastri – 366 points

A 24-point gap separates Norris from his two closest pursuers.

Qatar offers 33 points this weekend (8 from Saturday morning’s Sprint + 25 from Sunday’s Grand Prix). Simple arithmetic tells the entire story:

– If Verstappen sweeps the weekend (33 points), he reaches 399.
Even if Norris finishes 2nd to Verstappen in both the GP and the Sprint he ends Qatar on 415 – still only a 16-point lead heading to Abu Dhabi, where 25 points remain available. The title fight is guaranteed to go down to the final race.

– For Norris to clinch the championship in Qatar, he must leave Lusail more than 25 points ahead. That means he needs to outscore Verstappen by at least 2 points across the weekend (e.g., Norris 33 – Verstappen 31, or Norris 25 – Verstappen 22, etc.). Anything short of that and the crown stays up for grabs.

History strongly favors Verstappen here. He has won the last two Qatar Grands Prix – including 2024 in the clearly inferior RB20 – and the tricky Lusail layout continues to play to Red Bull’s strengths. The upgraded RB21 looks even more suited to the task.

Max Verstappen of Oracle Red Bull Racing and The Netherlands celebrates finishing in first position during the F1 Grand Prix of Qatar at Lusail International Circuit on December 01, 2024 in Lusail City, Qatar. (Photo by Peter Fox/Getty Images) // Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool

“Qatar has been good to us,” Verstappen said on Thursday, a faint smile betraying quiet confidence. “We know what we have to do.”

The Sprint on Saturday morning will set the tone. Eight points and psychological momentum are on the line before the main event under the floodlights on Sunday night.

One thing is certain: if Verstappen repeats his Lusail mastery and banks the full 33, the championship will be decided under the Yas Marina lights the following weekend – with both drivers still mathematically alive. If Norris manages to edge him by even two points over the weekend, Britain will crown its first world champion since 2008 right here in the desert.

Two races, 58 points, three contenders. Qatar is about to deliver one of the most consequential weekends in modern F1 history.