Formula 1 News: Early 2026 favorites emerge after Barcelona Test

As the engines roared back to life under the crisp winter sun of Barcelona, the 2026 Formula 1 season is already shaping up to be a thriller. With sweeping new regulations—simplified aerodynamics, sustainable power units, and a push for closer racing—the shakedown tests have given fans and pundits their first real glimpse into who might dominate the grid.

–by Mark Cipolloni–

Gone are the days of predictable hierarchies; this year, power unit prowess and adaptive engineering could redefine the pecking order. Mercedes, with their storied history of nailing regulation changes, have bolted out of the gates as the team to beat, but challengers lurk in every corner of the paddock. Yet, as bookmakers crunch the numbers and insiders whisper predictions, one name stands above the rest in the drivers’ stakes: George Russell, the Briton poised to lead Mercedes’ charge.

The Barcelona shakedown, a behind-closed-doors affair from January 26-30, was more than just a tire-squealing prelude— it was a litmus test for the new era. Mercedes racked up an impressive 502 laps, ticking off qualifying and race simulations with the precision of a team that’s been here before, reminiscent of their 2014 turbo-hybrid dominance.

George Russell, setting the second-fastest time overall at 1:16.445, looked every bit the title contender, his composure under pressure earning nods from rivals. Teammate Kimi Antonelli, the young Italian sensation, impressed with the fastest lap on day two, hinting at a potent one-two punch for the Silver Arrows.

No crashes, no major hiccups—just relentless mileage that clocked in at 2,337 kilometers, enough to drive from Brackley to Barcelona and back.

Ferrari, ever the enigmas, countered with a solid showing of their own. Lewis Hamilton, in his Scarlet debut season, blitzed the field with the week’s quickest time—a 1:16.3 on the final day, just 0.097 seconds ahead of Russell’s benchmark despite track evolution favoring later runs. The Scuderia logged 440 laps, including wet-weather stints, on a basic “Spec-A” car designed for reliability over outright pace.

Charles Leclerc complemented Hamilton’s efforts, but whispers of internal tweaks—like Hamilton’s race engineer reassignment—add a layer of uncertainty to Maranello’s vibes. Still, their pushrod suspension and over 400 laps without mechanical drama position them as serious threats, especially if upgrades unlock hidden potential.

Red Bull, navigating a post-Horner, post-Newey transition, had a mixed bag. Max Verstappen, the four-time champion, completed a full day’s running, but rookie Isack Hadjar’s early crash damaged the rear suspension, forcing spare parts to be flown in. Combined with sister team Racing Bulls, they amassed 622 laps on the new in-house Red Bull-Ford DM01 power unit, co-developed with Ford—a promising sign amid speculation of a regulatory loophole for higher compression ratios. Hadjar topped day one, but the team’s cultural shake-up and youth infusion make them a wildcard rather than outright favorites.

Defending champions McLaren rounded out the “Big Four,” with Lando Norris clocking the third-fastest time at 1:16.554. The reigning world champion’s squad showed flashes of speed, but a fuel system glitch delayed Oscar Piastri, and lingering internal driver tensions from 2025’s bickering cast a shadow. Norris, fresh off his maiden title, remains a hot pick, but adapting to the regs could test their upward trajectory.

For a complete overview of how teams stacked up in terms of reliability and preparation during the five-day test, here’s a verified breakdown of lap counts, distances, and key notes:

Bookmakers and prediction markets have crystallized these testing insights into cold, hard odds. George Russell leads the drivers’ pack, with probabilities hovering around 26-32% across platforms like Polymarket and BetMGM, reflecting Mercedes’ expected power unit edge and his consistent 2025 form (fourth place, two wins). Verstappen follows closely at 22-28%, his pedigree making him a perennial threat despite Red Bull’s flux. Norris sits third at 11-22%, buoyed by McLaren’s 2025 surge. Outsiders like Piastri (7-14%), Alonso (7-11%), and Antonelli (6-9%) add intrigue, while Hamilton and Leclerc lag at 2-4%, Ferrari’s inconsistency weighing them down.

Drivers’ 2026 Formula 1 championship odds as of early February

On the constructors’ front, Mercedes and McLaren are joint favorites at +150, with Red Bull at +300 and Ferrari at +600, per BetMGM. Vibes rankings paint Mercedes as the calm frontrunners, Cadillac as the fun underdogs, and Williams as the strugglers after missing the test entirely due to “chubby” car delays. Aston Martin, bolstered by Adrian Newey and Honda power, could surprise with Alonso’s grit, while Haas eyes a wildcard mid-pack push.

Combined Fastest Times from 2026 F1 Pre-Season Testing in Barcelona

Day 1 Report
Day 2 Report
Day 3 Report
Day 4 Report
Day 5 Report

As the circus heads to Bahrain for official testing on February 11, the grid is tighter than ever. Will Russell claim his throne, or will Verstappen’s magic prevail? One X pundit sums it up: “Early running is Mercedes (potentially by a lot), then Ferrari and Red Bull.” In a season where engines whisper secrets and data dictates destiny, the only certainty is uncertainty—and that’s what makes F1 electric.