Scenarios for Dixon to clinch 2020 IndyCar title

There are a maximum of 162 points for the final three NTT INDYCAR SERIES races
Will Power, Graham Rahal and Takuma Sato are eliminated if Scott Dixon participates in any two of the final three races
Dixon needs 33 points to eliminate Colton Herta (finishes of 19th or better in final three races)
Dixon needs 44 points to eliminate Pato O’Ward (finishes of 15th or better in final three races)
Dixon needs 91 points to eliminate Josef Newgarden (finishes of 4th or better in final three races)

MATHEMATICAL CLINCH SCENARIOS:

Dixon will clinch after Race 1 of the INDYCAR Harvest GP with a win and a Josef Newgarden finish of 14th or worse (up to 12th based on Dixon scoring additional bonus points). In this scenario, Scott Dixon could skip the final two races of the season, scoring 0 points for the remaining
If Newgarden wins both INDYCAR Harvest GP races with max bonus points (+108), Dixon could still clinch the championship with two second-place finishes and a single bonus point (lead a lap or start on the front row of either race). A 2nd and a 3rd would be enough if Dixon shows up and scores minimum points at Pete.

RACE 1 CLINCH SCENARIOS (Minimum points):

Dixon can clinch in Race 1 and only need to start the final two races (scoring minimum points at the remaining races) His clinch scenarios are:

Dixon P1 – Will clinch if Newgarden P7 or worse
Dixon P2 – Will clinch if Newgarden P15 or worse
Dixon P3 – Will clinch if Newgarden P20 or worse
Dixon P4 – Will clinch if Newgarden P23 or worse
Dixon P5 + 1 bonus – Will clinch if Newgarden P24 or worse
Dixon P6 + 3 bonus – Will clinch if Newgarden P24 or worse

MANUFACTURER POINTS

Honda can clinch the manufacturers’ title on Friday or Saturday of the INDYCAR Harvest GP, though it is more likely on Saturday.

Honda leads by 86 points would need to gain 203 points total in the final three races to clinch outright regardless of what Chevy does. (There are 96 points maximum in a race)

CLINCH SCENARIOS:

13 Hondas, 12 Chevrolets at Harvest GP (11 at St. Pete)
Max points are 96, min points would be 33 for Honda (13th + 14th Place), meaning Honda would need 127 point lead after Friday, or 64 point lead after Saturday
The only scenario to clinch Friday would be Honda must Finish 1st and 2nd, and depending on pole point, Chevy would need to score 56 points (Honda Pole) or 54 points + pole point (Chevy pole) to stay in the
To guarantee a clinch on Saturday for Honda, they’d need to have two of their cars finish in the top 3 in each This will make whatever Chevrolet does irrelevant.
Honda finishes 2nd and 3rd, gain 75 points. Chevrolet finishes 1st and 4th + pole, gain 86 points. That would leave standings at 1060 to 996, which is the exact gap Honda would need to clinch.Honda can also clinch by winning both races, regardless of where any Chevrolet