Formula 1 News: We analyze Verstappen’s chances of winning 5th straight title

To analyze Max Verstappen’s chances of winning the 2025 Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship against Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, we need to consider the current standings, points available, and realistic scenarios for the remaining seven Grands Prix and three Sprint races.

–by Mark Cipolloni–

Here’s a breakdown:

Current Standings (Post-Azerbaijan GP, September 2025)

– Oscar Piastri (McLaren): 324 points
– Lando Norris (McLaren): 293 points
– Max Verstappen (Red Bull): 255 points

Verstappen trails Piastri by 69 points and Norris by 38 points.

Points Available

– 7 Grands Prix: Each race offers 25 points for a win, totaling 7 × 25 = 175 points.
– 3 Sprint Races: Each sprint offers 8 points for a win, totaling 3 × 8 = 24 points.
– Total Points Available: 175 + 24 = 199 points.

If Verstappen wins all remaining races and sprints, his maximum total would be:
– 255 (current) + 199 = 454 points

This sets the benchmark for Piastri and Norris to defend against.

Scenarios for Verstappen to Win the Championship

For Verstappen to overtake Piastri and Norris, he must close the points gap, which requires him to outperform both McLaren drivers consistently while hoping for setbacks (e.g., poor finishes, DNFs, or team rivalry). Here are the key scenarios:

1. Against Oscar Piastri (Leading by 69 Points)

– Maximum Points Scenario: If Verstappen wins all 7 races (175 points) and 3 sprints (24 points), he reaches 454 points. For Piastri to lose the championship, he must score no more than 129 points (454 – 324 – 1, accounting for Verstappen’s tiebreak advantage via more race wins).
– Realistic Scenario for Piastri’s Points:
– Scoring 129 points over 7 races and 3 sprints averages about 12.9 points per Grand Prix weekend (e.g., consistent P2 finishes at 18 points each would yield 126 points, plus minor sprint points).
– If Piastri averages P3 (15 points per race) and modest sprint results (e.g., P3 for 6 points each), he could score ~120-130 points, keeping him competitive unless Verstappen dominates.
– What Verstappen Needs:
– Win most, if not all, remaining races and sprints to maximize points.
– Piastri must falter, either through DNFs, crashes, or lower finishes (e.g., P4 or worse, yielding 12 points or fewer per race).
– A single DNF for Piastri (0 points in a race) could reduce his target by ~15-18 points, making Verstappen’s task easier.
– Key Factor: McLaren’s superior rear tire management gives them a race pace advantage, making it tough for Verstappen to win every race unless Red Bull optimizes reliability and strategy.

2. Against Lando Norris (Leading by 38 Points)

– Maximum Points Scenario: If Verstappen reaches 454 points, Norris must score no more than 160 points (454 – 293 – 1) to lose on a tiebreak. This equates to an average of 16 points per Grand Prix weekend (e.g., consistent P3 finishes at 15 points each, plus sprint points).
– Realistic Scenario for Norris’s Points:
– Norris averaging P2 (18 points) or P3 (15 points) per race would likely keep him ahead unless Verstappen wins nearly every race.
– For example, 7 P3 finishes (105 points) plus ~15-20 sprint points would give Norris ~120-125 points, totaling 413-418 points—still competitive but vulnerable to Verstappen’s maximum haul.
– What Verstappen Needs:
– Win at least 5-6 races and 2-3 sprints to close the 38-point gap.
– Norris must have at least one poor result (e.g., DNF or finish outside the top 5) to drop ~10-15 points in a single weekend.
– Key Factor: Norris has been consistent but occasionally error-prone under pressure (e.g., 2024’s Sao Paulo GP). Verstappen’s experience in title fights gives him an edge in capitalizing on such mistakes.

3. McLaren’s Team Dynamics as a Factor

– McLaren’s “papaya rules” allow Piastri and Norris to race freely without team orders, potentially splitting their points. If Piastri and Norris compete aggressively, they could “shoot each other down,” costing each other points (e.g., collisions or compromised strategies).
– For example, a crash between Piastri and Norris (as speculated as “inevitable” by some analysts) could result in a double DNF, costing them 25+ points each while Verstappen gains.
– McLaren’s CEO Zak Brown has prioritized fairness over favoring one driver, which could benefit Verstappen if the McLaren duo splits podium finishes.

4. Key Races and Opportunities

– Sprint Weekends (e.g., U.S. Grand Prix): With 33 points available (25 for the race, 8 for the sprint), these are critical for Verstappen to maximize points. A win in both the sprint and race, coupled with a McLaren DNF or low finish, could cut the gap by 20-30 points in one weekend.
–Singapore GP: This upcoming races are pivotal. Verstappen’s recent wins in Monza and Baku show Red Bull’s improving form, but McLaren’s consistency makes them favorites. A Verstappen win in Singapore, paired with a McLaren mistake, could shrink the gap significantly.
– Unpredictable Conditions: Tracks like Austin or Interlagos (Brazil) are known for chaos (e.g., weather, safety cars). Verstappen’s ability to navigate such conditions, as shown in his 2024 Brazil win from 17th, could be decisive.

Challenges to Verstappen’s Title Bid

– McLaren’s Dominance: McLaren has won 7 of 9 races in 2025, with superior race pace due to rear tire management. Verstappen needs Red Bull to match or exceed McLaren’s performance, which has been inconsistent (only 2 wins this season).
– Points Deficit: A 69-point gap to Piastri is substantial with only 199 points available. Even with perfect results, Verstappen needs both McLaren drivers to average below their current form (e.g., P4 or worse).
– Reliability and Incidents: Verstappen’s DNF earlier in 2025 hurt his points tally. Red Bull must ensure no mechanical failures, and Verstappen must avoid penalties (he’s reportedly close to a race ban due to penalty points).
– Betting Odds: Bookmakers favor Norris (+150) over Verstappen (+380), reflecting McLaren’s edge. Piastri (+600) is also seen as a stronger contender, suggesting Verstappen’s chances are a long shot.

Specific Scenarios for Verstappen to Win

1. Perfect Run (Verstappen Wins All Races and Sprints):
– Verstappen reaches 454 points.
– Piastri must score ≤129 points (e.g., average P4 or worse, or one DNF plus P3 finishes).
– Norris must score ≤160 points (e.g., average P3 or worse, or one DNF plus P2/P3 finishes).
– Likelihood: Low, given McLaren’s consistency and tire advantage.

2. Strong Run with McLaren Setbacks:
– Verstappen wins 5 races (125 points) and 2 sprints (16 points), totaling 255 + 141 = 396 points.
– Piastri needs ≤71 points (e.g., one DNF, several P5/P6 finishes).
– Norris needs ≤102 points (e.g., one DNF, consistent P4 finishes).
– Likelihood: Moderate, if McLaren drivers collide or face reliability issues.

3. McLaren Rivalry Implodes:
– A crash between Piastri and Norris (e.g., double DNF) hands Verstappen a 25-point swing in one race.
– Verstappen wins 4-5 races and 1-2 sprints, reaching ~380-400 points.
– Piastri and Norris split points with P2/P3 finishes, falling short of Verstappen’s total.
– Likelihood: Possible, given McLaren’s lack of team orders and history of close racing.

Conclusion

Max Verstappen’s chances of winning the 2025 F1 World Drivers’ Championship are slim but not impossible. He must win nearly every remaining race and sprint (aiming for ~396-454 points) while relying on Piastri and Norris to lose points through DNFs, crashes, or intra-team rivalry.

McLaren’s superior car and driver consistency make this a long shot, but Verstappen’s experience, recent form (wins in Monza and Baku), and ability to capitalize on chaos (e.g., Brazil 2024) keep him in the fight. The U.S. Grand Prix and other sprint weekends will be pivotal, as will any McLaren mistakes or strategic missteps.

Final Odds Assessment: Bookmakers and analysts see Norris and Piastri as favorites due to McLaren’s dominance, but Verstappen’s championship pedigree means he remains a threat if Red Bull maximizes its package and McLaren falters.