Ferrari Shares Plummet After Earnings Guidance Miss, F1 Failure

Ferrari’s stock suffered its worst trading day in both European and U.S. markets on Thursday after the luxury automaker issued earnings guidance well below analyst expectations, compounded by ongoing challenges in its high-profile Formula 1 program, a cornerstone of its marketing strategy.

–by Mark Cipolloni–

Ferrari shares fell nearly 15% to just over $407 on the New York Stock Exchange, marking the steepest single-day drop since its U.S. listing in October 2015. In Milan, the stock slid over 14%, losing about €60 to close at €357.60, the largest daily decline since its January 2016 listing.

During its Capital Markets Day, Ferrari forecasted 2025 revenue at €7.1 billion, up slightly from €7 billion, with 2030 revenue projected at €9 billion and adjusted earnings of at least €3.6 billion, up from €2.7 billion.

Downgraded to Sell

However, RBC Capital’s Tom Narayan noted that the 2030 earnings outlook fell significantly short of Ferrari’s 2022 growth projections, indicating a sharper slowdown than anticipated. CFRA downgraded Ferrari’s stock to “sell,” cutting its price target from $475 to $350 due to concerns over slowing growth. Citi analysts called the guidance more conservative than their worst-case scenarios.

Formula 1 Woes

Ferrari’s lackluster performance in Formula 1, a critical component of its global brand identity, has further dented investor confidence. Despite high expectations following the high-profile signing of seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton for the 2025 season, Ferrari has struggled to compete for wins, with the team failing to secure a Constructors’ Championship since 2008 or a Drivers’ Championship since 2007. Hamilton’s move, intended to bolster Ferrari’s on-track success and marketing allure, has been criticized as a costly misstep, with the team unable to capitalize on his star power amid persistent performance issues.

#44 Lewis Hamilton climbs out of his wadded up Ferrari after crashing out on lap 23 of the 2025 Dutch GP

Ferrari’s Response

CEO Benedetto Vigna addressed the conservative outlook, stating, “People were expecting a higher top line, but it’s important we execute what we say. We cannot commit to something we cannot achieve.”

Other Analysts Opinions

Some analysts who wear rose colored glasses remain optimistic. JPMorgan expressed confidence in Ferrari’s long-term execution, citing demand far outstripping supply. Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to “buy” and raised its price target to €520, echoing similar sentiment.

EV Strategy Shift

Ferrari also scaled back its electric vehicle plans, targeting a 2030 lineup of 40% internal combustion, 40% hybrid, and 20% fully electric, down from a previous 40% EV goal. This aligns with industry trends, as seen with Volvo abandoning its EV-only target by 2030. Ferrari’s first electric model, the “Elettrica,” is set for delivery in late 2026.