Formula 1 TV Contract Analysis: Risks and Rewards

As Formula 1’s U.S. broadcasting rights hang in the balance with ESPN’s deal set to expire after 2025, rumors swirl of a blockbuster shift to Apple TV+—a move that could double the sport’s annual revenue but at the steep cost of accessibility.

–by Mark Cipolloni–

With Apple reportedly tabling a $150 million-per-year offer, far surpassing ESPN’s $85 million pact, the allure of cash is clear. Yet, this pivot to a subscription-based streaming service echoes NASCAR’s disastrous 2022 media rights gamble, where chasing record fees led to fragmented coverage, cord-cutter alienation, and a 13% plunge in average Cup Series viewership to 2.52 million in 2025.

For F1, already riding high on 1.4 million average viewers for its first 18 races this season, the risk is a similar nosedive that could erode sponsor value and stall its American surge.

Of the 18 F1 races held so far this season, all but two (Miami and Singapore) have seen year-over-year viewership increases, and 11 of the 18 (Australia, China, Monaco, Spain, Canada, Austria, Great Britain, Belgium, The Netherlands, Italy, Azerbaijan) scored event record audiences.

Across ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC, F1 races are averaging 1.4 million TV viewers, ahead of the all-time U.S. television record average of 1.21 million that was set in 2022.

NASCAR’s $7.7 Billion Bet Backfires: Ratings in Freefall

NASCAR’s seven-year, $7.7 billion media deal—split among FOX Sports, NBC, Amazon Prime Video, Warner Bros. Discovery (via USA Network and FS1/TNT), and others—promised innovation and youth appeal when inked in 2022.

Instead, it has amplified longstanding woes, with 2025 marking the sport’s lowest ratings in years. The New Hampshire playoff opener limped to 1.29 million viewers, a staggering 31% drop from 1.88 million in 2024, while playoff races overall averaged just 1.558 million—down nearly 17% year-over-year. The Charlotte ROVAL 400 on USA Network fared no better, drawing 1.544 million compared to 2.4 million on NBC the prior year.

Insiders like Eric Estepp pin the blame on structural rot: an aging fanbase (the oldest in major U.S. sports), three-hour race fatigue, and brutal NFL overlap, where Sunday slots pull 25 million viewers to NASCAR’s sub-1.3 million.

But the TV deal’s fingerprints are everywhere. With more races shoved to cable channels like USA and FS1 than ever—cable households now at 68.7 million, down from 105 million in 2010—the shift has locked out cord-cutters, especially millennials (18% planning to ditch) and Gen Z (23%). Amazon’s streaming experiments, like the Michigan Speedway race’s 1.77 million (a 16.2% dip), highlight fragmentation’s toll, as fans scramble across platforms.

Fans aren’t holding back. Social media erupts with gripes over “confusing” broadcasts and playoff tweaks allegedly swayed by networks, though veterans like Jeff Burton deny it: “TV didn’t make this decision… NASCAR takes all the information and makes a call.”

Reddit threads blast the deal for “dollars over terms,” lamenting too few prime-time slots on FOX or NBC and the alienation of older fans by streaming mandates. Even Denny Hamlin regrets it: NASCAR “took the most money, not the best deal, for the long run,” poaching sponsor dollars in the process.

Veteran Kenny Wallace urges patience, touting 2026 car and points changes, but the damage is evident—sponsors face shrinking ad impressions on cars and suits, squeezing team budgets amid a “perfect storm” of decline.

F1’s Streaming Siren Song: $150 Million vs. Mass Appeal

Enter Formula 1, where Apple’s overtures—fueled by Tim Cook’s fandom and the $600 million-grossing Brad Pitt “F1” film—threaten a parallel path. Talks are in “final stages” for exclusive U.S. rights from 2026, potentially announced at Austin’s Grand Prix this coming weekend.

ESPN, prioritizing “fiscal responsibility,” won’t counter, leaving the door wide open despite F1’s boom under its watch: 1.4 million average viewers, with 11 record-setting races and a 24% uptick for Azerbaijan alone.

Apple’s vision bundles F1 with MLS and MLB on its $9.99/month TV+ app, possibly simulcasting Sky Sports feeds or producing in-house. The payday swells F1’s $1.1 billion global media pot, but at what price?

Exclusivity could shutter F1.TV for U.S. fans—a profitable direct-to-consumer hit—erecting a paywall in a market already splintered by Peacock, Prime, and Paramount+. ESPN’s cable/ABC slots drove casual growth via “Drive to Survive”; Apple’s model risks reverting to niche status, much like NASCAR’s cable exodus.

Sponsors in the Crosshairs: Exposure Over Earnings

The real casualty? Sponsors, who inject $500 million yearly into F1 teams, relying on broad TV eyes for ROI. NASCAR’s slide proves it: Lower ratings mean fewer logo sightings, forcing teams to trim competitiveness. For F1, with U.S. teams like Haas and incoming Cadillac/Andretti eyeing expansion, plummeting numbers could deter brands like Rolex or Heineken from mass-market bets. As one NASCAR fan lamented amid the “burnout” by playoffs, accessibility isn’t negotiable—yet both sports seem poised to test it.

Liberty Media might hybridize with ESPN for reach, but history warns against greed’s blind spots. NASCAR’s “bold gamble” tanked ratings across the board.

Perhaps F1 should not bite the apple if it’s already rotting.