Updated 2025 F1 Drivers’ Championship Analysis Post-Las Vegas McLaren Disqualification

Following the disqualification of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri from the 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix on November 23, 2025, the title fight has intensified among the McLaren duo and Max Verstappen. Norris lost 18 points (from P2 on track), and Piastri dropped 12 (from P4), handing Verstappen a full 25-point haul for his victory on the Las Vegas Street Circuit.

–by Mark Cipolloni–

This leaves Norris with a 24-point lead, but with just the Qatar GP (November 28-30, including a Sprint) and Abu Dhabi GP (December 5-7) remaining—a total of 58 points available (8 from Sprint + 25 per GP)—all three remain mathematically in contention.

For context on the upcoming Qatar venue: In 2024, Max Verstappen won the Qatar Grand Prix at Lusail International Circuit, starting from P2 after a one-place grid penalty but overtaking George Russell on the opening lap to lead unchallenged amid three safety cars. He finished ahead of Charles Leclerc and Russell, showcasing Red Bull’s straight-line speed advantage on the high-speed layout. Lusail’s characteristics—long straights, abrasive track surface, and potential for night-race tire degradation—could favor Red Bull again, though McLaren’s MCL39 has shown strong low-speed rotation in recent events.

Current Standings and Maximum Potential

Points Scenarios for Title Contention

To win the 2025 championship, each driver must maximize their own score while minimizing the others’. Below, I outline the minimum points each needs from the remaining races to clinch (assuming optimal rival outcomes), plus the specific “win-out” case of scoring the full 58 (Sprint win + GP wins in Qatar and Abu Dhabi) for Verstappen and Piastri. These are calculated via simple arithmetic: for a driver to win, their final total must exceed both rivals’ maximums under the scenario. Ties are broken by countback rules (most wins, then second places, etc.), but I’ve noted where relevant.

Lando Norris: Securing the Lead with Consistency

Norris holds the advantage but must avoid repeats of Vegas misfortune. He can clinch the title with as few as 24 points total remaining (e.g., P2 in the Qatar Sprint [7 pts] + P7 in Qatar GP [6 pts] + P9 in Abu Dhabi [5 pts]), provided Verstappen and Piastri score 0 combined in those events—impossible in practice, but illustrating the buffer. More realistically:

– To beat Verstappen: Norris needs ≥25 points remaining if Verstappen scores 58 (final: Norris 415+ vs. Verstappen’s 424). But with Norris starting 24 ahead, he clinches if Verstappen scores ≤33 (e.g., two P5s [20 pts] + Sprint P6 [4 pts]), regardless of Piastri.
– To beat Piastri: Similarly, Norris needs ≥25 if Piastri scores 58, but clinches if Piastri ≤33.
– Combined scenario: In a three-way fight, Norris seals it with 34 points remaining (e.g., P3 in Qatar GP [15 pts] + P2 in Abu Dhabi [18 pts]) if both rivals score ≤33 each—feasible if Red Bull’s reliability holds but McLaren’s intra-team harmony falters, or if penalties hit the chasers.

Norris’s path emphasizes damage limitation: leverage McLaren’s pace for podiums while hoping for Red Bull errors or Piastri deference.

Max Verstappen: The Maximum Haul Requirement

Verstappen, tied with Piastri but 24 behind Norris, needs near-perfection to overcome the deficit. His 2024 Qatar win highlights his suitability for Lusail, where Red Bull’s top speed shines.

– To beat Norris: Verstappen must score the full 58 remaining points (final: 424) while Norris scores ≤23 (e.g., two DNFs [0 pts] + Sprint P8 [4 pts]). Any less than 58, and Norris’s lead holds even with a blank (e.g., 57 pts leaves Verstappen at 423; Norris at 390+0=390 wins).
– To beat Piastri: With the tie, Verstappen clinches on countback if he scores ≥1 more than Piastri (he leads in wins: 15 vs. Piastri’s 6 entering Vegas). But for outright math, 58 while Piastri ≤23.
– Combined scenario: Full 58 for Verstappen, ≤23 for Norris, and ≤0 for Piastri (or ≤-1 effectively, meaning DNFs). This requires McLaren double-DNFs—perhaps from setup missteps post-Vegas tweaks or aggressive intra-team battles—and no Red Bull gremlins.

The win-out (58 pts) is Verstappen’s only mathematical path, turning his Vegas boost into a fourth straight title via relentless execution.

Oscar Piastri: The Intra-Team Underdog’s Leap

Piastri, level with Verstappen but needing to overhaul Norris and potentially his teammate, faces the tightest margins. McLaren’s team orders could aid or hinder.

– To beat Norris: Piastri must score the full 58 (final: 424) while Norris scores ≤23 (e.g., Sprint P12 [1 pt] + two P11s [2 pts each]).
– To beat Verstappen: Piastri needs 58 while Verstappen scores ≤23; on equal 58s, Piastri loses countback (fewer wins: 6 vs. 15).
– Combined scenario: Full 58 for Piastri, ≤23 for Norris, and ≤23 for Verstappen. This demands Norris concessions (e.g., yielding positions) or errors, plus Red Bull retirements—exploiting any McLaren setup edge Piastri extracts from post-disqualification fixes.

Like Verstappen, Piastri’s win-out (58 pts) is essential, banking on team support to bridge the gap.

Realistic Outlook

Norris remains the clear favorite (~70% implied probability based on recent form and the 24-point buffer), with experts widely viewing him as the driver to beat entering the finale after a string of poles, wins, and consistent outperformance of Piastri in the last six races—transforming an early-season deficit into a lead through newfound maturity and setup tweaks that boost his front-end confidence.

However, when it comes to the perceived best driver overall in 2025, that mantle belongs unequivocally to Verstappen, the four-time defending champion whose raw talent, adaptability, and late-season surge have kept him in the hunt despite Red Bull’s earlier car woes; pundits like those at Motorsport.com and F1.com describe him as “head and shoulders above” the field, capable of extracting miracles from a suboptimal RB21, as seen in his pit-lane-to-podium charge in Brazil.

Under pressure, Verstappen’s edge is even starker—his unflappable mindset, honed by the 2021 title thriller with Lewis Hamilton, gives him a psychological upper hand as the seasoned underdog, allowing him to thrive where others waver; Mercedes’ Toto Wolff has noted this explicitly, calling it Verstappen’s “key advantage” in high-stakes battles.

The relentless Verstappen, with his history of aggressive on-track duels and unyielding comebacks, lives rent-free in Norris’s and Piastri’s heads, amplifying their pressure in this nail-biting endgame.

Norris has shown fragility in past title scraps (e.g., his 2024 fade), while Piastri’s “bizarre” mid-season slump—plummeting from a 34-point lead to 24 behind amid uncharacteristic errors—has been partly attributed to the mental load of chasing history against Max’s shadow, as Verstappen himself remarked on Piastri’s downturn.

Social media buzz post-Vegas echoes this, with fans noting how Verstappen’s omnipresence fuels McLaren’s intra-team tension and off-track jitters. Verstappen’s 2024 Qatar dominance suggests he could pressure early, but McLaren’s Constructors’ lead (entering Vegas) implies car superiority. Piastri’s hopes hinge on chaos. The 58-point max scenarios, while thrilling, underscore the fragility: one DNF ends dreams. Qatar’s Sprint (Saturday) sets the tone—watch for Lusail’s overtaking aids to shuffle the order.