Lewis Hamilton's Fading Prancing Horse: A Last Chance in 2026?

As the checkered flag fell on the 2025 Formula 1 season in Abu Dhabi, Lewis Hamilton stood in the Ferrari garage, helmet in hand, reflecting on a debut year with the Scuderia that few could have predicted.

–by Mark Cipolloni–

The seven-time world champion, who arrived at Maranello amid fanfare and dreams of an eighth title, ended the campaign sixth in the drivers’ standings with 156 points—his lowest tally in a full season since his rookie year in 2007. No Grand Prix podiums, just a single Sprint win in China, and a yawning gap to teammate Charles Leclerc, who finished fifth with 242 points and seven podiums despite Ferrari’s midfield struggles.

Toto Wolff, Hamilton’s long-time boss at Mercedes, had foreseen challenges when Hamilton announced his shock move. In his book Mercedes F1: Life in the Fast Lane, Wolff explained the team’s cautious one-plus-one-year contract extension in 2023: “We’re in a sport where cognitive sharpness is extremely important, and I believe everyone has a shelf life.”

He emphasized that Hamilton remained “very sharp” when the car suited him, but concerns about longevity lingered. Ferrari, signing Hamilton to a multi-year deal, appeared optimistic—perhaps overlooking the subtle signs of decline that Wolff had spotted.

Former F1 driver Ralf Schumacher, brother of Ferrari legend Michael and a frequent pundit on Sky Deutschland, has been one of Hamilton’s harshest critics throughout 2025. From early in the season, he questioned the move, and as Hamilton’s struggles mounted, his commentary grew more pointed.

“Lewis has to assert himself and not look for the mistake elsewhere,” Schumacher said after tensions surfaced in Azerbaijan. “That’s what you’d expect from a seven-time world champion.”

He warned that mistrust between Hamilton and the team could lead to an early parting: “If Lewis no longer has trust in the team, and vice versa, that would be a great shame. Because if mistrust develops, then it’s better to go their separate ways at the end of the year.”

The numbers against Leclerc in 2025 paint a stark picture:

– Qualifying head-to-head: Hamilton 5–19 Leclerc
– Race head-to-head: Hamilton 3–18 Leclerc
– Points: Hamilton 156–242 Leclerc
– Average finishing position: Hamilton 8.5 vs. Leclerc 6.75
– Pace gaps: Leclerc averaged 0.235 seconds faster in qualifying and 0.249 seconds per lap quicker in race trim

This dominance came in a Ferrari that dropped to fourth in the constructors’ standings, winless in Grands Prix and plagued by early development shifts toward 2026 regulations. Hamilton’s confidence appeared dented, with uncharacteristic errors—like four consecutive Q1 exits to end the season—and complaints about the car that peers like the ageless Fernando Alonso avoided at similar ages.

Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton 2025 Abu Dhabi GP. Photo courtesy of Ferrari

Hamilton’s late-season form was particularly dire: three consecutive Q1 exits from Las Vegas to Abu Dhabi—the first full-time Ferrari driver in decades to suffer such a streak—and uncharacteristic errors, including a crash at Zandvoort and mishandled team orders in Baku. He openly admitted the toll, saying after Las Vegas, “With my performance, Ferrari is done” for any hope of second in the constructors’, and calling the year “the worst season ever.”

The harshest voices came from former rivals and pundits, none more pointed than Nico Rosberg, Hamilton’s Mercedes teammate from 2013-2016 and the man who famously beat him to the 2016 title before retiring. Speaking to Sky Sports F1 throughout the season and especially in Abu Dhabi, Rosberg pulled no punches. Early on, he noted the continuation of Hamilton’s dip from 2024: “It’s a little bit of a continuation of his form from last year, where there was already a bit of a dip there. George had the Lee upper hand and was beating him at Mercedes.” As struggles mounted, Rosberg highlighted age as a factor: “Lewis is almost 41 now, and at 41 we know that you’re not going to get any faster. Time is not on his side either, facing these young guns in their super prime.”

By season’s end, after watching Hamilton spin uncharacteristically in FP3 at Abu Dhabi, Rosberg declared: “When have we ever seen Lewis spin during a normal lap in a free practice session? In his entire career, we’ve never seen anything like it. And now, at Ferrari, he’s making several mistakes. He simply doesn’t feel comfortable in that car.” He called it a “terrible season” and “not a fitting way to end his career,” adding that it “leaves a stain on the memory we’ll have of him” and “puts a little scratch on his legacy.” Rosberg described Hamilton as “suffering” in a “horrible situation” where the team and Italy could soon lose faith: “The whole of Italy may lose faith in him; that is not far away anymore, and so it’s a very, very scary situation.”

The numbers against Russell in 2024 foretold Hamilton’s decline:

Rewind to 2024, Hamilton’s final Mercedes year alongside George Russell, and the signs were already there. Though Hamilton edged the points (223–245) and secured more race-day highlights, Russell dominated one-lap pace:

– Qualifying head-to-head: Hamilton 5–19 Russell
– Race head-to-head: Hamilton 9–15 Russell

Russell outqualified the record 104-time polesitter comprehensively, becoming only the second teammate (after Nico Rosberg in 2014) to do so in a full season. Hamilton’s Sundays were stronger, but the qualifying gap hinted at waning edge in raw speed.

As the season wore on, Ralf Schumacher’s criticism intensified. Following Ferrari chairman John Elkann’s public rebuke urging the drivers to “talk less,” Schumacher declared: “With Lewis Hamilton, it’s pretty clear – that’s the most expensive personnel decision made at Ferrari in recent years. His performance isn’t up to par. Lewis Hamilton simply isn’t good enough.”

He accused Hamilton of a “tendency to sit by and do nothing” amid the woes, adding that the signing boosted shares but delivered no results: “The name drove the share price up, but unfortunately, the results didn’t.”

Schumacher repeatedly advocated for Hamilton’s replacement by promising Haas rookie Oliver Bearman: “Ferrari has a young Bearman up its sleeve who’s doing wonders with the Haas. And he costs a fraction of what Lewis Hamilton does.” By Abu Dhabi, he suggested investing in Bearman made “more sense than investing in the past with Lewis Hamilton,” citing the Briton’s inability to adapt his driving style ahead of the 2026 regulations reset.

Oliver Bearman of Great Britain and Haas F1 looks on during previews ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of United States at Circuit of The Americas on October 16, 2025 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Simon Galloway/LAT Images)

Now, whispers from Maranello suggest 2026 is Hamilton’s “last chance.” Reports indicate Ferrari has issued a performance warning: deliver in the new regulations era, or risk replacement in 2027 by Bearman. With major team overhauls underway and the window for an eighth title narrowing at age 41, Hamilton faces immense pressure. He must rebuild his support network, adapt fully to Ferrari’s ways—like Michael Schumacher did in the 1990s—and rediscover the form that made him unbeatable.

Yet Hamilton has defied doubters before. “I know that when we get things right, it’s going to be amazing,” he said amid the criticism. If Ferrari provides a contender in 2026, a resurgent Hamilton could silence the narrative of decline—including Ralf Schumacher’s relentless skepticism.

Fail to shine, however, and 2026 may indeed mark the washed-up finale to one of F1’s greatest careers—proving Wolff saw what Ferrari, in their enthusiasm, initially missed, and what Ralf Schumacher never stopped pointing out. The Prancing Horse’s dream signing hangs in the balance.